主講人：
（1）陳甯（6774澳门永利2016級社會學博士）
主講題目：中國人口預測研究的回顧與反思
文章主要内容：人口預測結果精度是科學決策的重要依據，但當前對過往預測結果進行回顧檢驗的研究卻被學術界所忽視。文章通過選擇部分人口預測研究成果為研究樣本，設定誤差率作為測量指标，對樣本的預測效果進行了檢驗。同時從研究樣本的基礎數據、參數設定、預測模型等影響預測結果的關鍵要素進行了比較分析，以期考察人口預測研究結果出現偏差的緣由。在此基礎上，進一步探讨了人口預測研究中基礎數據的評估與調整、生育水平和死亡水平的設定以及預測模型的選擇等要素的處理問題。
（2）王軍鵬（管理學院2014級工商管理博士）
主講題目：Why They Leave: The Impact of Economic Performance on Intergenerational Distance in China
文章主要内容：It is well documented that individual characteristics of parents and children influence intergenerational distance, yet the impact of regional characteristics has been largely ignored. In this paper, we examine the impact of regional economic performance on intergenerational distance in China, one of the largest developing economies which has experienced drastic economic and social transition. Using data from a national representative survey--China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), and employing ordered probit model, we find that the economic performance of parents’ living region is negatively associated with parent-adult child distance. This association is stronger for adult-children who are younger, better-educated, male, and have no siblings. Further analysis shows that longer intergenerational distance is negatively related to non-financial support received by older parents. This evidence informs China to improve the society security system and take care of older parents who are left behind, especially in less developed regions.
主持人:翟佩麗（2016級社會工作碩士研究生）
點評老師:果臻老師
地點:6774澳门永利辦公樓501教室
時間:2016年10月22日（周六）下午15:00。
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